Wednesday, November 5, 2008

黑人总统,奥巴马!


美国黑人总统,终于脱颖而出;
今后肩负重任,承载民众使命;
前路困难重重,未来改革艰苦;
内有金融危机,外有战争烂摊;
重塑美国形象,实是迫在眉睫;
稳住美国经济,乃是首要任务;
奥巴马当总统,世人引颈期盼;
呼吁全球群众,为其胜选欢呼!

America's First Black Elected President! What this tells us?


In the just concluded US presidential election result, the American people had made a great breakthrough. They had chosen an African American, “with a funny name” Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. With the promise to bring change to America, the 46-years-old Democratic Senator of Illinois won big with a landslide victory by winning electoral votes of 338 over McCain 163.

Before 4th November 2008, we can only see the African American President through the Hollywood's movies. But now it is real happening before our sight.

What this scenario tells us? The American people had once again been creating another great history in the world. They possess the wisdom, determination and capacities to constantly producing miraculous and remarkable greatness.

In the science and technology, the American had invented the internet which is initially being used for military purpose. Yet they had shared this technology out to the world and help to mould the different way people were being connected and promote a novel way of communication.

In the business world, there were Microsoft, Google, Dell, Amazon, Citibank etc whose successful brand names had implanted depth into our minds and integrated breadth into our daily life. They were all originated from the America.

And of course, the American people were smart and creative enough to popularize the securitized mortgage debts which were the major elements causing the current meltdown of the global financial markets and banking system.

Democracy, freedom, innovation and risk were those values connected to the American people. That is why they are able to create constant impacts to the world.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Utusan Melayu, the history?

Sejak kebelakangan ini, surat khabar Melayu tempatan -- Utusan Melayu telah terlibat dengan pelbagai isu politik yang melebihi fungsinya sebagai media massa untuk menyampaikan maklumat.

Kini, Ahli Parlimen Seputeh, Cik Teresa Kok telah memfailkan satu guaman fitnah terhadap Utusan Melayu dan seorang pengarang iaitu Mohd Zaini Hassan menuntut untuk RM30 juta sebagai gantirugi yang dikatakan menyebabkan beliau ditangkap dan dipenjarakan sebanyak 7 hari di bawah Akta Sekuriti Dalaman ("ISA").

Menurut laporan,beliau menuntut RM30 juta untuk satu artikel yang bergelaran "Azan, Jawi, Jais, UiTM dan ba-alif-ba-ya" yang diterbitkan oleh Utusan Malaysia pada 10 September 2008 yang dikatakan sebagai dengan niat jahat untuk menfitnah beliau.

Utusan Malaysia atau sebelumnya Utusan Melayu yang ditulis dalam jawi mula diterbitkan di Kuala Lumpur pada sekitar 29 Mei 1939 setelah ibu pejabatnya dipindah dari Singapura ke Malaysia.

Sebagai sebuah surat khabar kebangsaan Melayu, Utusan Melayu telah menjadi medan untuk menuntut kemerdekaan dan mengalakan idealisme bahasa dan sastera Melayu.

Dalam sejarah Malaysia, adalah dipercayai bahawa hanya wujud sekali sahaja demontrasi dan mogok yang melibatkan wartawan Melayu dan pekerja mereka iaitu pada sekitar tahun 1961.

Tindakan mogok ini yang mengambil masa lebih kurang 100 hari bermula pada tahun 1961 apabila para pekerja Utusan Melayu mogok demi mempertahankan kebebasan media dan berita.

Pada masa itu, Utusan Melayu yang kerap mengkritik Perdana Menteri pada masa itu, Tunku Abdul Rahman telah mendapati bahawa Ketua Editor dan CEO surat khabar tersebut yang bakal dilantik merupakan ahli UMNO.

Tokoh terkenal dan wartawan seperti Said Zahari, Usman Awang, Abu Zaki Fadzil, Awamilarsarkam dan lain-lain lagi telah dikatakan terlibat dalam tindakan mogok ini demi mempertahankan kebebasan media.

Antara sebab-sebab lain yang dikatakan menyebabkan tindakan mogok ini adalah polisi yang dikenakan terhadap wartawan dan pekerja Utusan Melayu di mana mereka dipercayai bahawa polisi tahun 1959 yang bakal dikuatkuasakan oleh ahli UMNO terlibat bakal menjejaskan kemerdekaan wartawan dalam menjalankan tugas mereka.

Untuk mempertahankan kebebasan media dan surat khabar mereka, adalah dikatakan bahawa Said Zahari telah memimpin wartawan-wartawan dan pekerja-pekerja kilang penerbitan membantah perlantikan ahli UMNO yang berkenaan dan meminta agar orang yang tidak mempunyai latar belakang politik dilantik sebagai Ketua Editor dan CEO.

Adalah tuntutan mereka agar pihak pengurusan menyelesaikan masalah berkenaan sebelum 21 Julai 1961 atau mereka akan mogok.

Pada 21 Julai 1961, mereka telah memulakan mogok yang bertahan sebanyak 93 hari dan berakhir pada 21 Oktober tahun yang sama.

Semasa mogok, mereka mendirikan khemah di luar pejabat Utusan dan menjaga di situ. Pada mulanya, mereka yang menyertai mogok cuba menghalang pekerja yang berniat bekerja untuk memasuki pejabat, walaubagaimanpun, mereka kemudiannya berhenti tindakan sedemikian.

Setelah lebih kurang satu bulan, Said Zahari telah dihalau ke negeri Singapura di mana beliau kemudiannya dikatakan telah ditahan sebagai banduan politik di situ.

Ada yang kata bahawa beliau telah diarahkan balik ke Singapura semasa dalam perjalanan balik ke Kuala Lumpur setelah melawat pekerja Utusan di Singapura yang menyertai morok yang berkenaan.

Setelah kehilangan ketua mereka, campurtangan daripada pihak polis juga menyebabkan pengikut-pengikut yang terdiri daripada pekerja dan wartawan berpecah belah. Atas dasar pihak pengurusan yang bersedia untuk menerima mereka yang mogok dan membayar gaji mereka telah menyebabkan mereka yang mogok berpecah pandangan dan apabila khemah-khemah mereka dirosakkan, pihak jawatankuasa mogok terpaksa menghentikan tindakan mereka.

Adalah dikatakan bahawa pihak politik masih menguasai surat khabar ini sehingga hari ini.

Rujukan: terbitan Strategic Info Research Developmen - Kuasa Rakyat- tradisi yang tidak berhenti
- laman web yang berkenaan di bawah carian "Utusan Melayu" atau "Utusan Malaysia".

Monday, October 13, 2008

Is Malaysia located in another planet? Are we talking about planet earth?

Under the backdrop of the current global financial crisis which is originated from the US and spread to the Europe and now starting to affect the other parts of the world including Asia.A simple analysis of Malaysia 2009 economic outlook from the perspective of an ordinary working man.


As we all know that Malaysia’s major revenue sources are from the export of the crude oil and crude palm oil, specifically the crude oil export contributed nearly 40% to 46% to the nation’s revenue.


The US is still the leading export market of Malaysia, followed by European Union, South East Asia and the fourth is Japan.Overall manufacturing products accounted for 75 percent of Malaysia's total exports followed by crude oil and other minerals at 14 percent and agricultural products at 9.5 percent, as at 31 December 2007. While the exports of electrical and electronic goods accounted for 44 percent of total exports, with the US is the biggest consumption market.


For the last two weeks, the stock markets worldwide had been experiencing the severe bottomless spiral southwards. Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur Composite Index , year to date, had been tumbling more than 30% since the early of the year 2008.


What the above statistics tell us?


As at 11 October 2008, the global crude oil price was tumbling to below USD 80.00 per barrel as compare to its record high of above USD 140.00 per barrel, while the crude palm oil price was recording below RM 2000.00 per tonnes for December 2008 order as compare to its record high of above RM 4000.00 per tonnes. This means that the country is going to experience the budget deficit if the government is not intending to review its already presented 2009 National Budget. We must be questioning where would be the funding sources for the mega projects such as the Iskandar Malaysia (formerly known as Iskandar Development Region or IDR) and the other Economic Corridor Region?The Iskandar Malaysia and the other Economic Corridor Regions had been hailed as the major engine of the Malaysian economic growth in the future.


The consumers' confidence level in US and the Europe had been dipped into the decades low following the subsequent collapse of their banking and financial institution. This will have huge impacts onto our export. With the external demand reducing, the manufacturing companies will abandon their existing expansion plan and tightening their budget. While the fear of massive manpower laid-off in the manufacturing sectors will soon dominate the Malaysian market. Then the possible rising of the unemployment rate will certainly pose a significant impact to the social instability which had been ailed by the political instability since Malaysian historical 308 political Tsunami.


The severe bearish market had dampened the households’ confidence level and their spending sentiment. They will finally tightening their belts and cut back on consumption. Hence, the slow growth of the domestic consumption.


With the internal and external negative development, we might tend to ask where the country’s economy is heading to?


The globalization seeds had long been taken root in this world for decades. This means, nowadays, the economies of the countries across the continents, in breadth and depth, are interconnected and interdependent.


Yet lately, we still heard our country’s leaders unanimously expressed confidence that Malaysia’s economy is still resilient given the current global financial crisis. They boasted that the country have a stronger economic fundamentals, sufficient foreign reserves and sound financial and banking system.


Hullo, Is Malaysia located in another planet of the universe? Not in planet earth?

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Equality, Justice, Issues and Policies

Today, in Sin Chew Daily (13 October 2008, Monday) headline, is the statements by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin on the topic that UMNO needs to make changes and that there should be review of the economic policies and distributions of the wealth in the Country.
It was stated that UMNO must make the changes on the distribution of the country's wealth, review the issues that were perceived to be injustice (to certain quarter in the society) including education, language, religion, judiciary, execution of law and so on.
In life, we recognize that all of us are different, whether it is in physical forms such as the colour of the skins, the height and weight of our bodies, or in our spiritual forms such as the way we think, the religion we believe in and the culture that we practise.
In a society or even a country, we are also different through the systems we practise, the laws that we uphold and the language that we used.
All of us are different, there is no doubt about it.
We are different in all ways, that is the fact and the easiest way to proof is the different fingerprint that we all have and the different genes that we carried.
According to the Biblical story, men in the city of Babel, was a city that united humanity, where all spoke a single language and share the same goal. It was said that they wanted to build their city with the tallest building that would have top of the tower in the heavens. This Tower of Babel was dedicated to the glory of men. God saw what people have done and gave each a different language to confuse them and scattered the people throughout the earth.(Refer Genesis 11:1-9 ).
We are different and yet we all seek for equality. In the famous Declaration of Independence written by Thomas Jefferson in 1776, it was stated that "all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
No doubt, there will never be equality amongst gender on the basis of physical strenghts and hormon difference. No doubt there will never be equality to chances as each one has his/her own destiny and there is no equality in democracy politics where the one with the majority voters will have control over the government especially when a candidate come from the majority ethnic group in that society.
In short, the dominant (in numbers) will always prevails. However, we cannot say that it is wrong as logic will draw to the same conclusion. The minority should adapt to the needs of the majority. It would be against the norm if ten person needs to learn the language or styles in living of one in order to communicate (the question of why many should submit to one arise). As such, the dominant in resources, knowledge, weapons, technology and wealth will always take precedent over the rest.
It was with this principle that our laws were made. The dominant should have the biggest shares first before the minority can be given the rest. Even the Darwin theory doesn't put equality as a part of nature. It was always about balance and not equality. For example, Arthur needs to eat 2 pizza per meal while Bob needs to eat 1 pizza per meal, to give 1 1/2 pizza in equal will be a waste in resources for Bob and suppression of needs to Arthur. There will never be equality.
To overcome the principle of the dominant comes first, the human civilizations adopt the principles of justice and equality. It was with these principles that all needs of the society be controlled and the basic needs of all be provided but not until the suppression leads to revolutions or war.
The idealogy of having a just and equal society is necessary to maintain stability and sustainable progress. However, it is always easier said than done. For the dominant UMNO to give up its rights when it is still gigantic cannot bring anything except chaos. The only option available is to increase the size of the cake and reduce the ratio of growth of the dominant and to bring up the minority. Only changes at the right timing will we have the dominant remaining relevant but would not be ignorant to the needs of the minority.
Only at the right timing will our society progress on merits and all these depends on policies that the government is willing to take and make. All said and done, it will require a lot of political wisdom should Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin intends to ensure a sustainable and progressive Malaysia. However, if he manage to do so, there will be no distance between him and the premiership.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Forum (5) - Press Release

马来西亚青年运动(青运)总会属下之社会与青年研究组与网络部落客 —“大国论坛”首次联办的第五次社会论坛圆满结束。

论坛主持人陈俊铭律师感谢所有参与者的踊跃出席及感谢当晚的主讲人 --- 陈政豪律师与李健杰先生的知识分享。

青运与大国论坛所举办的社会论坛首要目标是鼓励社会人士进行知识与经验分享并藉此平台引导社会青年关心时事与国势发展。

陈政豪律师在主讲“马来西亚家庭法”时强调,夫妻双方同意离婚与单方面申请离婚的其中一项差异是双方同意离婚的法律程序是不需要把婚姻破裂的原因公诸于世。

李健杰先生在讲解 “ 投资信托 --- 真相、迷思与策略时强调运用公积金(EPF)的好处” 。他解释利用公积金去投资信托基金是利用一笔额外资金去投资而投资的服务费最高仅是3%,远比市场的 5-6%服务费低。此外,运用公积金去投资的数额若在当事人被宣布破产时也会回归公积金局管辖而不会被接管。只要公积金第一户口在30岁时(依照公积金条例) 超过RM23,000.00 , 40岁时超过 RM49,000 及50岁时超过 RM95,000均可提出所超出的数额去投资。

秉持着分享知识与透明社会的概念,青运总会属下之社会与青年研究组与大国论坛将于每个月举办不同课题的社会论坛并进行交流。主办单位将于10月18日(星期六)晚上8时于雪兰莪蒲种进行第六次社会论坛。罗玉忠先生将主讲“在中国的生意机会 --- 我的经验” 与傅瑞丝小姐将主讲“在印尼的生意机会 --- 我的经验”。大众受邀出席,入场免费。研讨内容将以华语为主并在有必要时使用其他语言为辅。

欲知详情请联络:俊铭 012-356 9168 或游览www.magnificentnationforum.blogspot.com

Monday, September 29, 2008

Forum (5) Part II - Investment In Trust Fund-- The Truth, The Myths and The Strategies




1. What is Unit Trust?

A: A Unit Trust fund is a professionally managed investment fund, which collects the resources from individual investors or corporate investors with similar investment objectives. With the large sum of capital, fund managers can invest the money into stock market, bonds, money market, property or others according to the investment objectives of the fund.

2. Why we invest in Unit Trust? What is the benefit?
A: Unit Trust is one of the investment tools that we can use to achieve our financial goals. The benefit of unit trust includes:
• Low risk as it invests in many different sectors or asset allocations (diversification)
• Managed by professional fund manager
• More liquid than share
• Chance to invest in bond market or foreign stock market, where normal individual investors cannot invest into.
• Advantage of compounding

3. Is there any disadvantage for Unit Trust?
A: Yes, there is disadvantage for Unit Trust as well. Diversification may reduce the returns, as some of the share may perform well, and some of the share may perform poor. Fund Managers have limitation on investment strategies, as they need to follow the investment strategies stated on the prospectus.

4. What is the difference between Unit Trust and Mutual Fund?
A: Theoretically, there is difference between unit trust and mutual fund. There is only unit trust available in Malaysia.

5. Where we can buy Unit Trust?
A: We can buy unit trust at their fund houses respectively. Example, buying Public Mutual fund at Public Mutual office. Another way is, buying through agents or banks.

6. Any requirement or minimum amount to invest in Unit Trust?
A: The minimum initial investment amount is stated in the prospectus. Different funds have different minimum initial investment amount. Normally, the minimum initial investment is RM1000.

7. Is there a variety of Unit Trust in the market?
A: Yes. There are many types of unit trust available in the market now.
Equity Fund:
Higher risk, mainly invest in stock market.
Bond Fund:
Lower risk, mainly invest in bond market.
Income Fund:
Lowest risk, mainly invest in fixed income securities, such as Fixed Deposits.
Dividend Fund:
Moderate risk, mainly invest in high dividend yield stock.
Index Fund:
Invest in all the Composite Index contributing stocks.
Balanced Fund:
Moderate risk, invest in both stock market and bond market.
Besides the type of funds, there are also varieties of region where the fund will invest in. Currently, there are funds investing in Asia region, Europe region, global, Far East region, ASEAN countries and so forth.

8. What is NAV?
A: NAV (Net Asset Value) is the real value of the fund. All the transactions of the fund are based on the NAV.

Example:
If the NAV of the fund is RM0.25:
You buy 10000 units, the total investment is RM0.25x10000=RM2500
You sell 10000 units, the total money you get is RM0.25x10000=RM2500

9. Is there any charge and fee applied?
A: Yes, normally we need to pay service charge, annual management fee and annual trustee fee. The rate of charge and fee is different among different fund. Normally, equity funds charge 5-7% service charge, 1.5% annual management fee and 0.7% annual trustee fee. Bond and income funds charge 0-0.25% service charge, 1.5% annual management fee and 0.7% annual trustee fee.

10. How to choose a fund to invest?
A: Examine the risk level that you can take. Different types of funds have different level of risk. If you are risk taker, you can invest in high risk funds, such as equity funds. After deciding which type of funds to invest, look at the past performance of the fund and the fund houses. Although the past performance cannot guarantee the future performance, we can know the ability of that particular fund manager.

11. What if I do not have much of money? Can I invest as well?
A: Normally, the minimum initial investment amount is minimal, which is RM1000. There are still unit trusts having minimum initial investment RM500.
12. What is the interest rate of Unit Trust?
A: Unit Trust is not a saving tool. Unit Trust is an investment. Hence, there is no fixed interest for Unit Trust. You can get return from Unit Trust when the price increases or dividend distribution.

13. Do I need to top up my investment every month?
A: No, it is not necessary you need to top up your investment every month. Effective 25 June 2007, EPF funds are no longer allowed to be withdrawn to invest in oversea funds.

14. Is the return of Unit Trust guaranteed?
A: No, there is no guaranteed return for unit trust.
15. If the stock market is going down, should I sell all my Unit Trust?
A: Not necessary. As unit trust has diversification in different regions or different sectors, even the stock market is going down, it does not mean all the stocks price will go down and not all the region will face this downtrend.

16. How long should I hold the Unit Trust?
A: Normally, investors are advised to hold the unit trust for 3 to 5 years or longer. Hold the unit trust longer to enjoy the compounded return.

17. What is distribution and unit split?
A: Distribution is similar to dividend. Its purpose is to give back return to investors. Distribution is given in cash or investors can choose to reinvest the distribution. Unit Split is to make the fund size bigger and price lower.
Eg: Unit Split 1:25, if you have 1000 units, you will get 40 units extra after the split.

18. Should we only buy the fund with high historical distribution?
A: No. Distribution is not indicating the performance of the fund. The real value of the investment is still same. After distribution, the fund price will drop as the distribution is from the NAV of the fund.

Eg: Fund with RM0.50 NAV declares distribution of 5 cents. If you have 1000 units, you will get RM50 from the distribution. After the distribution, the NAV will decrease 5 cents, become RM0.45 per unit. So, the value of the 1000 units you are holding is RM450 instead of RM500.

19. How can we know that how much we have earned or lost?
A: From the statement, you can know how many units you have. Multiply the number of units with the NAV of the fund, you can get how much is your fund worth now. Example, you invest RM1000, and the worth of your fund now is RM1200, you earn RM200 or 20% of it. If you are not sure the number of units you have, you can refer to your agent.

20. Can we sell the Unit Trust anytime we want?
A: Yes, you can sell your unit anytime. Get your agent to help on this.

21. What is switching?
A: Switching is one of the strategies in Unit Trust investment. As there is service charge for every investment, switching is used to save the service charge. Normally, switching applies a minimal switching fee, but you do not need to pay the service charge.
Example, you are holding equity fund and have earned money, you foresee the market is unstable and going down, you can switch your equity fund to bond fund to lock your profit. Bond fund is more stable and will not be affected much by share market movement. Once you feel that the share market is stable and going up, you can switch back your bond fund to equity fund. This process includes two times of switching, so the charge is only two times of switching fee. You can save the 0.25% service charge (when switch from equity fund to bond fund), and 5-7% service charge (when switch from bond fund to equity fund).

22. How is the mechanism of switching?
A: Switching is similar to repurchase and buy without paying service charge. The mechanism is as such, for example, you have 4000 unit of an equity fund, you want to switch it into bond fund. These 4000 units will be converted into value by multiplying the NAV. The value is divided with the NAV of the bond fund to get the total unit of bond fund you get. Eg: 4000 units of RM0.25, the value is RM1000. If the bond fund’s NAV is RM0.50. You will get 2000 units of bond fund.

23. Do I need to pay tax for the profit I gain from Unit Trust investment?
A: No, the profit you gain from the capital appreciation is not taxable. However, distribution
is taxable.
选择基金时,价钱重要吗?是不是低价表示比较便宜划算?

信托基金的价钱并不应该被视为遴选基金的重要因素。基金的价钱并不像股票。一个股票如果价钱比净资产低或本益比低,股价可以说是便宜。但是基金并不能这样评估的。

例子1:
有2个新的基金,一个NAV是RM0.25,一个NAV是RM0.50。是否表示RM0.25的基金比较便宜,比较划算?
当然不是,真正来说,这2个基金都一样,不会一个比另一个便宜,或比另一个贵。想象一下,如果你投资RM1000(舍去服务费不算),一个你能得到4000单位,另一个你得到2000单位。一旦这2个基金都涨了10%,那RM0.25的就变成RM0.275,那RM0.50的就变成RM0.55。
现在来算真正你赚了多少,RM0.25的,你的4000单位乘以RM0.275,你能得到RM1100。RM0.50的,你的2000单位乘以RM0.55,你能得到RM1100。
那不是一样吗?

例子2:
当一个基金的价钱来到RM1.00时,是不是表示该基金已经很贵了,不值得买?
其实也不然。因为基金就是投资在股市的。一个基金能否继续上涨,并不是看基金的价钱,而是看股市的走势。一个低价的基金,如果股市上涨不多,这基金也不会上涨很多的。所以,并不能说RM1.00的基金就是很贵。如果股市还有潜质上涨,那基金就肯定能继续上涨了。

例子3:
一个RM0.30和一个RM1.00的基金,是不是RM0.30比较有潜质上涨呢?
当然也不是。有没有潜质上涨,并不是看基金的价钱,而是看基金的投资策略。如果美国股市疲弱,而亚洲股市强劲,那投资美国的基金就肯定不能上涨很多了。
有很多人以为比较低价的基金,上涨空间比较大,其实也不然。投资回酬是以百分比来衡量的。不应该用钱来衡量。如果2个基金的投资策略一模一样,RM0.30的基金赚了RM0.10,那RM1.00有可能也是赚RM0.10吗?当然不会,因为你投RM0.30就能赚到RM0.10,如果你投RM1.00,当然赚的也比较多。以这个例子,RM0.30的基金赚RM0.10,等于有33%回酬。那RM1.00的基金,应该是赚了RM0.33,也是33%回酬。所以,上涨空间并不能用价钱来衡量。

结论:
我个人觉得基金的价钱并不应该成为我们选基金的考量之一。选基金时,重要的是,清楚自己本身能承担的风险程度,然后选一个适当的基金。除了风险,还要考虑基金的投资策略是否适合你的口味。还有,记得一点,衡量投资回酬一定要以百分比,不能单单看表面的价钱。了解基金的投资策略并考量该基金的投资市场是否有潜质,这样的做法比较妥当。

至于便宜或贵,也得看股市了。如果股市普遍很贵,本益比很高,那RM0.10的基金也是贵的。如果股市普遍很便宜,本益比很低,那RM1.00的基金也不贵。



什么是distribution?Distribution重要吗?
投资股票,其中一个收入来源就是股息,dividend。在信托基金世界里,我们叫这作distribution,而不是dividend。Distribution 就是基金经理把一部分赚到的钱,分发回馈投资者。Distribution是以现金的方式分发的。投资者在投资基金时,会选择再投资这distribution还是把distribution拿出。那distribution重要吗?当然distribution是起着一定的作用的。对投资者而言,distribution的意义不是很大。为什么?比如,一个基金NAV是RM1.00,分distribution 10cent per unit。你持有1000个单位,那你就能得到RM100。那基金在分了distribution后,NAV就会相应的降低,从RM1.00跌到RM0.90。现在算投资者真正持有的单位价值,1000xRM0.90=RM900,然后加上distribution RM100, 一共RM1000。价值还是一样。这里值得一提的是,再投资时,我们是不用付服务费的。Distribution 有一部分是需要抽税的,但是如果你的个人所得税没有公司税般高,你能在填 BE Form 时,claim回你多付的税款。那distribution到底有什么用处呢?其实,它可以降低基金的价钱,看起来比较便宜,比较能吸引更多新的投资者。Distribution对基金公司很有用,但是对投资者并没有什么意义。所以,个人觉得我们在选择基金时,不用看基金过去的distribution纪录。只需要看基金的性质和投资策略是否适合自己。也可以参考过去的回酬表现。




Annual Return 的计算法和复利的奥妙

在这里解释一下如何计算年回酬(annualized return)。
任何投资都有总回酬(total return)和年回酬(annualized return)。总回酬很简单计算也容易了解。只是用回酬除以投资成本的百分比就是了。

例子1:
投资者投资RM1000在某基金,5年后他的基金价值RM2000,赚了RM1000的回酬。总回酬率是100%。
方程式:
% Return = Total Return/Total Investment
总回酬率 = RM1000/RM1000 = 100%

这例子的投资者赚了100%,听起来好像很多,赚了一倍,但是大家没有考虑到他用了5年时间。那他真正一年是赚多少?这个就必须算年回酬率了(annualized return)。

例子2:
就以例子1的情况,现在我们看看这投资者的基金每年的平均年回酬是多少。
方程式:
%Annual Return={(total return % +1)^(1/year of investment)}-1
年回酬率 = {(100%+1)^(1/5)}-1 = (2^0.2)-1 = 0.1487 = 14.87%

我们可以算到平均年回酬率是14.87%。
如果我们不这样计算,只是用100%/5,那我们会得到20%。其实真正的年回酬是14.87%。

从另一个角度来看就是,RM1000投资在每年有14.87%回酬的基金长达5年,我们的RM1000就变成RM2000了,赚了一倍。

这就是复利的奥妙。别小看7.2%年回酬,以为这投资在10年后才赚到72%。其实不然,如果投资RM1000在每年7.2%回酬的基金,在10年后,其实这投资是赚一倍的,既是赚了RM1000。如果你要验证,可以利用上面的方程式算算,顺便可以练习一下。这里也引用klse.8k前辈的开番理论。投资RM10,000在每年有26%回酬的投资,30年后竟然变成RM10,000,000。

说了复利的奥妙,当然也要说通货膨胀率。通膨每天都在发生,如果通膨率每年4%,那你现在的RM1000在5年后变成多少?
方程式:
Future Value = Present Value x (1-inflation rate)^(number of year)
5年后的价值 = RM1000 x (1-0.04)^5 = RM815.37

现在可以看见分别吧。把RM1000用来投资,只要年回酬率比通膨率高,那我们的钱就不会变少了。如果把RM1000收在家里,那5年后就变成RM815.37。

Invest Early or Invest Late?

Assuming that the annual return of the investment is 8%:
Mr. A invests RM1200 every year for 10 years, but Mr. B wants to enjoy life first, so he plans to invest RM1200 every year for 20 years on 11th year onwards. In the 30th year, Mr. A has around 40% more than Mr. B, although Mr. A just invests for 10 years while Mr. B invests for 20 years.
Conclusion:

Time is very valuable and it cannot be bought using money. Time is a very important aspect for the investment to grow. The compounding effect is significant. Invest earlier definitely generate more money for you compared to investing later.

Regular Saving in Unit Trust Fund
Regular saving is same as DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). This method is to force investors to save money into the funds and let the money grow, and also to average the fund price, so that investors will not buy the fund at the peak.
Let see how much we can get if we invest regularly:
Assume initial investment is RM1000.
Average annual return = 8%
Most of the financial planners will assume unit trust fund can give 8% of average annual return. Assume that you invest RM1000 and top up RM300 every month for 15 years, you can get RM104,000 after 15 years.
Even if you cannot take too high risk, and opt to a combination of moderate and low risk funds,
an average annual return of 6% is reasonable.

Assume that you invest RM1000 and top up RM300 every month for 15 years, you can get RM88,000 after 15 years.

Why Use EPF to Invest in Unit Trust?
Since February 2008, EPF (Employee Provident Fund) has modified their policy and allow more
people to withdraw from their EPF account 1 to invest in unit trust funds.

Advantages of using EPF to invest in unit trust:
1. Lower Service Charge

EPF has set the service charge for EPF investment maximum 3%. Normally equity funds impose 5-6% service charge.

2. Longer Investment Time

We only can withdraw the money from EPF account 1 when we are 55 year old. Since we cannot withdraw the money for the said period, we can put the money into the unit trust fund for long term, like 15 years or 20 years. With the longer time of the investment, the risk is lower.

3. Higher Return

Since year 2001/2002, EPF gives lower interest, which is around 4-5%. Even in the year 2006/2007, with the big bull market, EPF also just announce 5.8% interest in year 2007. For equity funds, the average annual return is always around 8-10% if we invest for more than 10 years.

4. Average Buying Price

We are only allowed to withdraw the money to invest every 3 months. So, we will invest into the funds every 3 months for long term. This definitely will average our buying price, so that we will not buy the funds at peak price.

Disadvantages of using EPF to invest in unit trust:

5. Only pure local funds are allowed
EPF only allows EPF investors to withdraw from EPF to invest in pure local funds. Funds which invest in oversea are not allowed. This may limit the profit of the investment if oversea markets are doing well and the investment is not diversified in terms of region.
The content of this post belong solely to Mr. Lee Keng Ket and published with the consent of Mr. Lee Keng Ket.
Prepared by: Mr. Lee Keng Ket
(Should you have any query or requires further details, kindly contact him at: http://leekk8.blogspot.com/.)
Q&A Session:
Q: What is the minimum amount allowed to be withdrawn from EPF at the age of 30, 40 and 50 years old?
A: (After taking into consideration of the minimum amount in the 1st account of EPF according to age and minimum amount allowed to be withdrawn of RM1,000.00 (refer http://www.kwsp.gov.my/ for "simpanan asas") ) At the age of 30, the amount should be more than RM23,000.00, at the age of 40 should be RM49,000.00 and at the age of 50 should be not less than RM95,000.00. But it is advisable to dispose of all the shares between the age of 50-55 as the market of the Trust Fund when you are at the age of 55 years old may not be a good price to sell.